Physics (Internal)

On the estimation of damages due to coastal floods

Abstract:

Sea level rise is going to affect the statistics of extreme sea
levels. If one wants to calculate damages due to upcoming storm
surges, it is necessary to estimate the damage due to
individual flood events. In the case of (coastal) floods, so
called stage damage functions are employed, which provide for a
flood of certain maximum level a typical damage that occurs at
a considered location. We investigate how changes in the
extreme value statistics affect the expected damages and find
surprisingly simple relations. Our results show that in
addition to the knowledge about local sea level rise, it is
essential to know the actual form of damage functions which
usually follow power-laws. Thus, we estimate damage functions
(i) from historical flood damages and (ii) from a limited case study.