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VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//RLASKEY//CALENDEROUS//EN
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
METHOD:PUBLISH
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260915T045702Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20121116T203436Z
DTSTART:20111115T203000Z
DTEND:20111115T213000Z
UID:event828@bu.edu
URL:http://physics.bu.edu/internal/events/show/828
SUMMARY:Accelerating Moment Release Before Large Earthquakes: Life and Deat
	h (and Rebirth?) of an Earthquake Prediction Scheme.
DESCRIPTION:Featuring David Bowman\, California State University\, Fullerto
	n\nHosted by: William Klein\nPoster: http://physics.bu.edu/posters/2011_Fal
	l/06_Bowman.pdf\n\nPart of the Physics Department Colloquia Series.\n\nAbst
	ract:\nIt has been suggested that large earthquakes are preceded by a syste
	matic increase in the rate of background seismicity in a broad region aroun
	d the impending event. This rate change\, known as “accelerating mome
	nt release” (AMR)\, has been proposed as a precursory signal that cou
	ld be used to forecast large earthquakes.   Bowman and King [GRL\
	, 2001] demonstrate that the pre-mainshock stress field\, as indicated by a
	 simple backslip model of the event\, can be used to define the critical re
	gion that optimizes the precursory AMR signal.  The observation of acc
	elerating seismicity within this region represents a period of increased li
	kelihood of a large earthquake. With sufficient knowledge of the regional t
	ectonics\, it should be possible to estimate the likelihood of earthquake r
	upture scenarios by searching for AMR related to stress accumulation on spe
	cific faults.  Several different approaches requiring different levels
	 of understanding of the tectonic environment have been used to analyze ear
	thquake catalogs for AMR signals before potential large events. False-alarm
	 and Failure-to-predict statistics are calculated based on historical seism
	icity; given the heterogeneity of modern instrumental earthquake catalogs\,
	 these statistics suggest that the current AMR algorithm does not provide s
	ignificant predictive power.  However\, recent observations of non-vol
	canic tremor and “slow earthquakes” in subduction zones suggest
	 significant increases in regional seismicity associated with these non-sei
	smic fault slip events.  This suggests that AMR may be precursory to a
	 broader range of fault slip events than traditionally-defined earthquakes\
	, and may explain the apparent failure of AMR prediction schemes based sole
	ly on standard earthquake catalogs.
LOCATION:SCI 109\, 590 Commonwealth Avenue\, 02215
STATUS:CONFIRMED
CLASS:PUBLIC
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